2014 Academy Awards : My Predictions in All 24 Categories


2014 Academy Awards

All right, all right, all right, it is Super Bowl Sunday for people who really love movies. Because I am one of them and because I have too much time on my hands (actually not true but who needs a life) here are my predictions and my favorites for the 2014 Academy Awards, the 86th Academy Awards.


Will Win : 12 Years a Slave
Could Win : Gravity
Long-shot : American Hustle
My Favorite : Nebraska

I was convinced that Gravity would win best picture but have since decided that the Academy is going to pick the more important film over the more entertaining film. With that said, I loved Nebraska more than either of those films.


Will Win : Alfonso Cuarón
Could Win : Steve McQueen
Long-shot : Alexander Payne
My Favorite : Alfonso Cuarón

As much as I love Nebraska and as much as the story and writing bored me to tears in Gravity the groundbreaking movie making especially visually (this is a movie, not a book) of Gravity is stunning and amazing. How can you say that and not reward the director?


Will Win : Matthew McConaughey
Could Win : Leonardo DiCaprio
Long-shot : Chiwetel Ejiofor
My Favorite : Matthew McConaughey

If the Oscar does not go to Matthew McConaughey I am hurting somebody. I was blown away, in shock, in tears, when I saw this movie I thought McConaughey was so good. How can one man in one performance be a total sleazeball that makes you laugh, makes your cry and before its over has you cheering for him as a hero with tears streaming down your cheeks. I think it is one of the best performances in film history.


Will Win : Cate Blanchett
Could Win : Amy Adams
Long-shot : Meryl Streep
My Favorite : Meryl Streep

Unlike the rest of the world I was not that excited about the performance of Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, good, yes, but it just felt contrived to me. My favorite is Meryl Streep but, to be honest, this category does not excite me, even the performance of Meryl felt a bit contrived. But Meryl made me feel more so that is why it is my favorite.


Will Win : Jared Leto
Could Win : Barkhad Abdi
Long-shot : Jonah Hill
My Favorite : Jared Leto

Leto was simply sublime in his performance, like McConaughey I was shocked and surprised that he was just so damn good. Watch the movie and just focus in on Leto, can you find a moment that does not feel true? To be honest, after a few minutes I was thinking, is Jared a transsexual and I just do not know it, it felt that real.


Will Win : Lupita Nyong’o
Could Win : Jennifer Lawrence
Long-shot : June Squibb
My Favorite : Lupita Nyong’o and June Squibb

Lupita’s performance simply breaks my heart, you just have to give the little gold man to her. With that said I loved June Squibb’s performance just as much for exactly the opposite reasons, she was hilarious.


Will Win : Her
Could Win : American Hustle
Long-shot : Nebraska
My Favorite : Nebraska

People think the Her script was groundbreaking, I did not. I thought it just another take on the love triangle story but it seems to be what everyone wants to win. I semi-hated American Hustle as a finished film, I try and separate that from the script. Nebraska was great, subtle, but really good writing.


Will Win : 12 Years a Slave
Could Win : Captain Phillips
Long-shot : Before Midnight
My Favorite : The Wolf of Wall Street

This goes to 12 Years a Slave simply because it is just so damn important. As a writer I am not that impressed with this category this year but I really, really want to believe that The Wolf of Wall Street was a great script that just got mangled by Scorsese.


Will Win : Frozen
Could Win : Frozen
Long-shot : Frozen
My Favorite : Who Cares

I do not go to see animated movies, other than the chance to maybe mack on some single moms in the theatre, as a single middle aged man I have no reason to be there, but everyone says Frozen is a lock.


Will Win : The Great Beauty
Could Win : The Broken Circle Breakdown
Long-shot : The Hunt
My Favorite : The Hunt

Everyone says The Great Beauty is looking like a lock. The Hunt is my favorite as it is the only film in this category I have seen.


Will Win : 20 Feet from Stardom
Could Win : The Act of Killing
Long-shot : The Square
My Favorite : Whichever one wins until I get the chance to see them.

I LOVE documentaries but have yet to see any of these. I do know 20 Feet from Stardom was a box office hit and a crowd pleaser so that means it will probably win.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Nebraska
Long-shot : Inside Llewyn Davis
My Favorite : Gravity

You thought you were watching people in space, need I say more.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Captain Phillips
Long-shot : American Hustle
My Favorite : Gravity

Most people do not understand that after the director, writer and actors, editing more than anything is what makes or breaks a film. But editors like writers will never be stars, oh well. With that said I think Gravity wins this one and deserves it.


Will Win : 12 Years a Slave
Could Win : The Great Gatsby
Long-shot : Gravity
My Favorite : 12 Years a Slave

Should Gravity win this? Maybe, you did feel like you were watching people in space but that seems to also make the design more one note. 12 Years should and totally deserves to win, you felt like you were in that time and everyone looked like they belonged in that time.


Will Win : The Great Gatsby
Could Win : 12 Years a Slave
Long-shot : American Hustle
My Favorite : The Great Gatsby

Everyone looked fabulous in Gatsby but 12 Years was probably the toughest job and may deserve the Oscar. The costume design is totally overrated in American Hustle, I could have costumed that film with a day of searching Salvation Army’s. But man, did everyone look great in Gatsby.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Her
Long-shot : The Book Thief
My Favorite : Who Knows

I simply do not remember a film this year that makes me feel like the score was another character in the film which is my standard for a great score. So with that I guess Gravity takes it.


Will Win : Let It Go
Could Win : Ordinary Love
Long-shot : Happy
My Favorite : Happy

They say Let It Go is a lock so who am I to argue. Of course, you can never underestimate U2 to win any award but if you are looking for a long-shot to place a bet on, go with Happy. I love this song and never underestimate the power of a positive pop song and hit to snag some votes.


Will Win : Dallas Buyers Club
Could Win : Jackass Presents : Bad Grandpa
Long-shot : The Lone Ranger
My Favorite : Jackass Presents : Bad Grandpa

I truly believe that Jackass Presents : Bad Grandpa deserves this one but I also believe that at least half of the members of the Academy would be mortified to hear, “and the Academy Award goes to Jackass Presents : Bad Grandpa”.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Gravity
Long-shot : All The Other Ones
My Favorite : Gravity

As big a lock as locks get, back to that you felt you were watching people in space thing.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Captain Phillips
Long-shot : The Lone Survivor
My Favorite : The Lone Survivor

I really, really wish they would combine best sound editing and mixing in to one category and call it simply Best Sound but I guess the sound people have a strong union. OK, I have made my case. Gravity wins but I thought The Lone Survivor was amazing work, imagine recreating all those gun shots hitting all kinds of stuff with people sliding down mountains and so on and so on.


Will Win : Gravity
Could Win : Captain Phillips
Long-shot : The Lone Survivor
My Favorite : The Lone Survivor

Read the last category and then replace the word recreating with the word mixing. And then go Google the definitions of sound mixing and sound editing.


Will Win : Get a Horse
Could Win : Room on the Broom
Long-shot : Possessions
My Favorite : Really?

I am writing what I have read elsewhere on the Internet. I call it stealing.


Will Win : The Voorman Problem
Could Win : Helium
Long-shot : Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
My Favorite : I Will Get Back To You

I actually enjoy this category and have fantasies of winning an Oscar one day after I make my first short film. Unfortunately I seem to never see the shorts until after the awards show so what you read above is stolen from the Internets.


Will Win : The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Could Win : Facing Fear
Long-shot : Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
My Favorite : The Winner Until I See Them

Again, more plagiarizing on my part but combine old lady who just died with music and the Holocaust and you pretty much have a lock. Did I say, I DO LOVE documentaries.

Enjoy the show and go watch some movies.

2014 Academy Awards : The Best Picture Oscar Goes To…

I am a big fan of movies so I love the Academy Awards no matter how boring the show often gets. I will probably have another post or two before the show on Sunday but for now I figured I would go on and give my take on the Best Picture category.


2014 Academy Awards

Looks like it will be a big year for Gravity, it will probably win, and that sucks. I thought it was great movie making but not a great movie. Turn this story and script in to something on earth and no one is talking about it. The story was predictable and boring, if not for the effects and visuals I would have fallen asleep. (Update : I have since decided 12 Years a Slave takes this one and that is probably for the best.)

But for your entertainment here is my quick take on the nominees, feel free to discuss.

American Hustle : I thought it was a bad comedy, they will be showing this movie at midnight screenings some day with high school and college kids dressing up as their favorite characters and acting out the parts as badly as the actors.

Captain Phillips : solid storytelling, a really good movie, the nomination is their win.

Dallas Buyers Club : pedestrian storytelling with, of course, two of the best performances in movie history. Who knew McConaughey had the talent to be a sleazeball and a hero and make you laugh and cry and simply break your heart all in one performance. His and Leto’s performances are both simply sublime.

Gravity : wake me up after they collect the best picture statue.

Her : a sweet little movie that makes you think just a bit, that’s it, not a best picture nominee.

Nebraska : brilliant, sublime, movie making at its best, on my planet this wins best picture.

Philomena : have not seen it, will before Sunday night (and will update this post), but I am guessing the nomination is the win for them.

12 Years a Slave : a great and very important story makes for a good movie but not a best picture.

The Wolf of Wall Street : wow, I simply want to punch Scorsese in the face. This movie screams potential greatness at the top of its lungs but feels like Scorsese just gave up on it like a kid figuring out he can not put the puzzle together so he gives up and knocks the table over.

Enjoy the show, go see a movie.